Trump Flails at Campaign Promises

Without going through a scorecard of failures delivering on campaign promises for the 2024 election, Trump has just swung and missed at what would otherwise have been ball 1, resulting in another strikeout. This time, it was his promise to significantly reduce gasoline prices to under $2/gallon. Between then and now:

• It has never even made it to 1/2-way from where it was (a little over $3/gallon) to the target,
• The lowest average price since Trump took office was the beginning of 2026 at roughly $2.75/gallon,
• Since January 1, it has continually climbed back up to about $2.92/gallon just before the end of February.

Then, on February 28, Trump and Israel went to war with Iran, resulting in almost immediate changes to OPEC pricing and a significantly heightened risk to oil traffic through the Straits of Hormuz. I say Trump and Israel, not because the US is not involved in total, but because it was an illegal engagement in war without Congress being consulted and providing the required declaration of war or other appropriate approval. Oil prices have quickly increased by about 6%, with more expected since much of the world's oil originates near, and is transported through, the war zone.

The average price of gas in mid-2023 was appr. $3.80/gallon and generally trended down through the end of 2024 at $3.09/gallon. That is an average price drop of $0.47 per year, compared with $0.34 for 2025. And this ignores that it is now at about $3.02/gallon as of March 02, which eliminates all but $0.07 of that 2025 decrease. So, if we are going to blame the presidents for gas prices in each of these years, it would appear that Trump has done much worse than Biden. And Biden inherited a global economy decimated by supply chain disruptions and other COVID pandemic issues, while Trump's issues have been mostly self-inflicted.

Of course, many have pointed out that the President has little power to change oil and/or gasoline prices . . . with a couple of exceptions. Starting a war that disrupts the supply chain of crude oil is one of them. And it has no upside — only downside. And he claims to be the smartest man in the room.

Oh, there are occasional claims of $1.99 gas on Facebook. But GasBuddy reports that this phenomenon is limited to about 8 stations out of the approximately 150,000 stations they monitor. And most of these prices are likely from stations connected with larger retail companies that can afford the low gas price as an incentive to shop.